Parlay card no. 001 · season 2026
Two prices for the same game.
The sportsbook posts a moneyline. Over on Real, a live market of people trading the same game settles on its own number. rax watches both all night, strips the juice out of the book line, and puts any game where the two disagree by more than two points on the board — sized, priced, and updated every five seconds.
How one play gets made
| book line | ARI −160 / CIN +145 |
|---|---|
| implied | 61.5% / 40.8% adds up to 102.3% |
| the juice | 2.3 pts the book’s cut, removed |
| fair price | ARI 60.1% |
| Real price | ARI 55.0% |
| edge | +5.1 pts |
Numbers from a real Cincinnati–Arizona market captured in August 2026. When the fair price beats the Real price by two points or more, it’s a play.
House rules
- The floor is 2 points. A game where the de-vigged book line and the Real price are within two percentage points of each other never makes the board.
- Size comes from a ladder, not a feeling. Each play is scored on edge (2–10+ points), market volume (100k–500k+), and how far the price has moved in the last 30 minutes. The score maps to 0.5, 1, 2, or 3 units. One unit is 1% of bankroll.
- The board re-prices constantly. Sportsbook odds refresh every 60 seconds. Real prices stream in live over a socket. The board itself updates every 5 seconds.
- MLB moneylines only, for now. Game winner markets. Settles on the team that wins; extra innings count.
- Sources are named. Sportsbook odds come from The Odds API. Market prices come from Real’s own live feed.
From the builder
rax started as a terminal script that printed a table every five seconds while I watched games. The math stayed the same when it moved here: find the number the book actually believes, compare it to the number the market believes, and only talk when the gap is real.